|
The Long Day
What the
Florida primary meant to our political parties
By Rebecca Wakefield
 |
|
File photo by Mitchell Zachs/magicalphotos.com |
Keeping
in mind that this column was written before the results
of Jan. 29 were fully tallied, here’s what I think this
little exercise in democracy means to
Florida
and Miami.
The most encouraging result was the high voter turnout.
Of more than one million voters in the county, a good 12
percent voted before Election Day. The total county
turnout for the 2004 primary was a pathetic 7 percent,
and in 2000, 12 percent.
The interest this time was similarly high statewide, at
least briefly reversing the steady decline in
participation in the primaries in
Florida since they started in 1972. From a high of 58
percent, the turnout had declined to a piddling 20
percent by 2004.
By this measure, I would say that the state
Legislature’s gamble of moving the primary from March to
January was a success. But while I’m on the stats, let
me throw another couple at you:
Florida is continuing its march into purple statehood,
meaning that at some point the party-exclusive primaries
are going to become somewhat irrelevant.
In 1972, Republicans statewide made up 28 percent of the
electorate, Democrats a little more than 68 percent and
unaffiliated voters comprised the remaining 3 percent.
In the next three decades, the Republicans closed that
gap and now make up about 38 percent of the electorate,
while Democrats are 41 percent. But, since 1996, the
largest gains have been made in the “Other” category —
which is now about 21 percent.
In
Miami-Dade
County, voters break down almost identically — 42
percent Democrats, 33 percent Republicans, 20 percent no
party affiliation (the remaining 5 percent belong to the
fringe parties).
It’s clear that the group with the momentum in the long
run is “Other.” In the short term, it’s why politicians
spend so much time here trying to take us to the prom.
We’re just not that easy. In
Florida, a given election really is a question of who
turns out.
That trickles down to local elections, the building
blocks of the national system. Various local groups are
beginning to get this and tackle it. The
Miami
Workers Center, for instance, started a Take Back the
Vote campaign, focused on increasing voter turnout in
poor black and Hispanic neighborhoods.
On Tuesday, they were stationed at precincts in Wynwood
and
Liberty City to monitor the polls. The previous two
weeks, they canvassed these neighborhoods, trying to
entice occasional voters to get out there. But the real
purpose was to begin building turnout for the general
election.
“We’re doing this because right now politicians really
bank on people not voting,” says Joseph Phelan,
communications coordinator for the
Miami Workers Center. “The system is set up that way. If
we can just get the turnout, we can change the shape of
an election even without advocating for different
candidates.”
Phelan says the group has so far found that voter
education is lacking. People know they should vote, but
oftentimes they’re unclear what they’re voting for.
That’s especially true when it comes to local
referendums, such as the ones for property tax cuts and
slot machines.
“We are looking at the long term in terms of local
elections and motivating that vote,” he adds. “Federal
elections are important, but a lot of the federal
programs that affect people are shifting to the local
level.”
Regardless of Tuesday’s results, the exciting bit of
this race is that it feels like a real battle, based on
ideas as much as the personal qualities of the
candidates. The front-runners in each party (McCain vs.
Romney,
Clinton
vs. Obama) represent the poles each party is struggling
to contain.
It’s a refreshing change from the 2000 and 2004
elections, which seemed to offer only a choice of which
candidate you hated less. On the Democrat side, the line
is drawn between the relentless policy wonk and the
disorganized but inspirational new blood.
The Republicans also have their story — the pragmatic
CEO with an entirely flexible notion of leadership
versus the cantankerous maverick war hero. Thus far in
the primaries, this story has been less explored than
that of the Democrats.
Florida
began to bring it out. It’s interesting because what
happens in the national party always rebounds into this
state.
I asked political consultant Michael Caputo recently
about his take on this story. Caputo has been busy
working against the Florida Hometown Democracy petition,
but he’s worked on presidential campaigns for Ronald
Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Jack Kemp. In this race, he
prefers McCain, but isn’t employed by the campaign.
Early this week, Caputo confidently predicted that both
Hometown Democracy and his competing petition would
fail, by a tiny margin, to get on the 2008 ballot. “They
are at the close but no cigar stage,” he said. “But it’s
so close, if it’s not on the ballot in 2010, I’ll eat my
hat.”
But on
Florida’s
significance to the presidential election, Caputo said
he’s seeing a developing schism between “the Reaganite
conservatives and the Rockefeller Republicans.” This he
describes as the emerging dissolution of the uneasy
political marriage of the old Reagan and Bush machines.
Back in the day, Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush
couldn’t stand each other. But in 1980, they joined
forces to win the White House. Their supporters merged
somewhat all the way through to the current presidency.
“In the era of George W. Bush, with the out of control
spending, the remarkable expansion of the bureaucracy
and a war fought on questionable grounds,” the original
conservatives feel betrayed, Caputo explains. “Now all
these folks feel like it’s high time to get divorced.”
So now, suddenly Caputo finds himself picking up all
these guys at the airport that he used to work with on
the Reagan campaign in 1980 and ’84 and hasn’t seen in
Florida
since. He credits this to McCain gutting his campaign
staff during the summer and hiring old Reagan hands. “An
‘all hands on deck’ call went out to the Reagan crowd,”
he says. “These guys are arriving and saying, ‘Put me
in, coach.’”
Meanwhile, most of the Bush crowd is supporting Romney.
Thus, he sees an old battle playing out anew, with major
repercussions for the national race. “In
Florida,
you’ll see the first real separation,” he argues. “It’s
the 1980 race all over again. A lot of folks see
Florida
as a battle for the heart and soul of the Republican
Party.”
If Caputo is right about that, it makes perfect sense.
Just as the Democrats are trying to redefine themselves,
so are the Republicans. Old themes and new form an
intoxicating brew. The only question is, how drunk are
we going to get?
Comments? E-mail
wakefield@miamisunpost.com |
