The Graham Factor

Forget the quirks. Every politician is quirky. But still, a failed presidential run by U.S. Senator Bob Graham could leave Florida without the senior Democratic Party leadership it desperately needs in the GOP-controlled nation’s capital.

A.C. Weinstein
Columnist 

For nearly four decades, United States Senator Bob Graham has been a leading political voice and force for Florida and the Democratic Party. Back in the 1960’s Graham was elected to the State Legislature and served the people of Florida for many years with honor and distinction.

The popular legislator was then elected to the state’s top post, serving two terms as Florida governor. Although some may argue that Graham’s eight years in the governor’s seat may not have shaken nor even rattled the good-old-boy political establishment, he was a state leader who gained the respect of both parties during some rather turbulent years of political and social change.

So much so, Graham moved on to win a seat in the U.S. Senate, where he is currently serving a third term. Graham is now considering entering what is expected to be a hotly contested and competitive democratic primary election to bring forth a candidate to challenge President George W. Bush in 2004.

With the spotlight lighting up Graham as never before, the shine on the senator’s quirky, perhaps even eccentric behavior is tantalizing the local media. In fairness to Graham, it would be near impossible to find any politician of either party at any level without some quirkiness. Just check the local media outlets from the home states of the other potential candidates announcing a run at the White House. All are quirky.

 It would seem, at least to this writer, that any politician that has survived with some success the climb up the local political ladder to the level of considering a run for national office, must be chock full of quirks. Or worse. Graham may be entering into a field of democrats that could even stretch the test of Gary Hart’s predilection for lap dancing and Al Sharpton’s history of bizarre behavior.

But Graham’s decision to run in the democratic primary has now been delayed due to the need for heart surgery. As everyone wishes the senator a full and speedy recovery, the period of mend in Bethesda, Maryland should also offer Graham the time he will need to reflect the consequences of vacating his senate seat. Not doubting his ability to show well in any primary election, the strong possibility of losing Graham’s senior status in the U.S. Senate would be a terrible blow to Florida and its unsettled Democratic Party.

Graham’s years in public service has won him many friends. When he announced a possible bid for the presidency last month, his friends, from as far back as his first election to the House of Representatives, promised to be there with moral and financial support. But some of those friends and long-time political insiders view his chances of coming out on top in the democratic primary as being marginal at best.

No one can question Graham’s years in the U.S. Senate have broadened his recognition and appeal far beyond the borders of Florida. Those who admire and respect Graham’s many years of public service also understand his importance and relevance to Florida is best serving in the U.S. Senate.

As Florida’s most influential democrat within in the national political landscape, should Graham decide not to run, his senior senator status and role of advising statesman in the primary election will have a far greater impact on who will be the candidate to challenge for the presidency.

While he should certainly be applauded for considering the run, by staying in his seat, Graham and his friends can be a major factor in swinging Florida’s voters toward backing the eventual winner of the democratic primary.  

On the other hand, should Graham decide to enter the primary, there are a number of local politicians eyeing that much-coveted senate seat. It’s a rare political opportunity and, for their own self-interest, some of those politicians may even urge Graham to vacate his seat. Even the state’s major fundraisers now salivating over the domino seat scramble a Graham for President campaign will create are encouraging the senator to enter the primary.

If it is a go, there are some plausible and rational democrats that could succeed Graham. U.S. Representative Peter Deutsch would be considered the early front-runner to fill Graham’s seat and also the candidate with the best chance to defeat a republican challenger in a state that’s finding itself more and more under the control of the GOP. Still, Graham would be a far more difficult opponent for the expected republican senate challenge in 2004.