Last week I put forth the proposition that it just might be possible to shake up local politics by persuading a few thousand extra Miami Beach residents to vote this year. It was a bit uncomfortable to expose myself like that because believing such a thing is possible throws my whole cynical journalist pose off kilter.

I asked for your responses and I got plenty. Most were extremely positive. But several people experienced in this arena also registered an opinion, and most of them thought I was being pretty naïve. I’ll go ahead and cop to that.

Electioneering is about math and geography and psychology. Every would-be king or queen has to choose how to spend precious time and campaign cash. Do they try to turn over new rocks? Nope. They target the reliables.

Fact of the matter is many have tried to motivate voters, especially younger voters. For the most part, they have failed. The stats are even worse for a place like Miami Beach, where nearly everyone is from somewhere else and on his or her way to the next destination.

This was the problem for Tony Guerra. In 2003 Guerra, then age 32, ran for the City Commission against incumbent Simón Cruz and parking garage magnate Hank Sopher. The strategy seemed to be the same one that got guys like Joe Sanchez and Bruno Barreiro elected across the bay, i.e., that the little old ladies who dominate local electoral politics would see their grandsons in the affable muñecos and, you know, pinch their cheeks and give ’em a chance.

But there was also a lot of chatter about Guerra’s alleged ability to draw the youth vote because of his prominence in South Beach’s nightlife scene as a promoter and part owner of various popular clubs. He positioned himself as the bridge between old and new Beach politics. People joked, however, that the nightlife constituency simply couldn’t wake up early enough to get to the polls.

Guerra’s own civic credentials were also strained when it was revealed that he himself hadn’t managed to wake up soon enough on Tuesday to vote in the previous eight years.

As it turned out, the barb had some bite. Guerra garnered 1,710 votes, just 55 short of Sopher, who went on to tank in the runoff against Cruz. “I told everybody I lost by the speed limit,” Guerra told me recently. “It’s a joke. I’m a perfect example of [the adage that] every vote counts.”

So what happened? Well, partially, Guerra’s campaign was run by people who largely stuck to the formula of targeting the people who consistently vote. Between Cruz’s incumbency advantage and the crotchety appeal of Sopher, Guerra just couldn’t compete. I asked Guerra why he thought he lost four years ago. He said when he was out there making the rounds he kept running into the same situation — most of the younger people he was trying to connect with just didn’t connect with Miami Beach as a community that required something of them.

“When I would walk around and say ‘I’m a Miami native’ people would say, ‘Wow! I’ve never met a native before,’” Guerra recalls. “People come here for a change of lifestyle or a better life, but they aren’t as proactive.”

Guerra told me the problem is that if people aren’t politically active in the places they come from, they are even less likely to take an interest in our municipal machinations (unless the City Commission starts holding its meetings on the beach, with complimentary drinks and a DJ). “What’s going to make them active here?” Guerra reflects. “I got the rah rah support from them, the ‘Go get e’m, Tony!’ But if you’re not going to show up and vote, thank you for the support, but what I need is the vote.”

He thinks it is possible to reach people, and you don’t need to reach that many to have an impact. “To win an election on Miami Beach, if you get 3,500 votes you’re in there [actually it’s often less],” he says. “Even 500 votes makes a big difference.” 

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If voter apathy comes down to a lack of connection — to the community, or to its leaders, the Human Services Coalition of Dade County is one local group working to change that. This summer the HSC is kicking off a program to select 15 young adults (ages 18-30) for 10-month paid apprenticeships at various local nonprofit organizations and government agencies.

The idea for the program, called Miami Public Allies, is to teach local young people leadership, organizing and community outreach skills they will hopefully apply later in life. The apprentices get a $1,500 monthly stipend, health insurance, child care and $4,700 at the end of the program to help fund their education. 

The program has worked in 13 other cities across the country. Parmer Heacox, the HSC’s civic life director, said the purpose is to develop the community and invest in the future by bolstering new leadership in Miami-Dade County. “The young adults will get a crash course in civic engagement 101,” he said. “So people who live here and have a stake in our community will learn how the community can have a voice in the way things are done.”

The deadline to apply for a position is Aug. 17. There’s an orientation on Friday for people interested in either becoming an apprentice, or hosting one. It will be held at the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce (inside the Omni Complex at 1601 Biscayne Blvd.).

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Another encouraging sign is that Miami’s activist groups are maturing and looking for ways to connect to the broader community. In June, a delegation of some 150 Miami activists, from the Miami Worker’s Center among others, traveled by bus to Atlanta for the first United States Social Forum (www.ussf2007.org). The forum attracted some 12,000 activists from all over the country. The activists shared their various struggles and strategies for success, and networked on common issues. (If you want to hear how it went, the MWC plans to talk about it at their offices, 6127 NW Seventh Ave., on Thursday, July 26 from 6 to 8 p.m.)

Aiyeshia Hudson, a community organizer, described the experience as eye-opening. “It was amazing,” she said. “Knowing there are thousands of people around the country fighting for social justice and they are fired up. That’s exciting to think how much power we can have.”

Linda Sippio, a leader of the Liberty City-based group Low-Income Families Fighting Together, said many activists feel like they’re out there fighting by themselves, but the forum made them realize “we all are fighting a common devil.”

“We need to find common ground to strategize around defeating those demons,” she said.

But what about Miami? How do the rebels with a cause — be it affordable housing, the environment or voting — reach beyond their individual turf to the rest of the metropolis?

“That is one of the broader questions,” Sippio responded. “How to connect back to Miami in general, not just activists. We are trying to figure out a way we can arouse the consciousness of the masses in Miami.”