Thursday, Jan. 31, 08

The Long Day

What the Florida primary meant to our political parties

By Rebecca Wakefield

File photo by Mitchell Zachs/magicalphotos.com

Keeping in mind that this column was written before the results of Jan. 29 were fully tallied, here’s what I think this little exercise in democracy means to Florida and Miami.

The most encouraging result was the high voter turnout. Of more than one million voters in the county, a good 12 percent voted before Election Day. The total county turnout for the 2004 primary was a pathetic 7 percent, and in 2000, 12 percent.

The interest this time was similarly high statewide, at least briefly reversing the steady decline in participation in the primaries in Florida since they started in 1972. From a high of 58 percent, the turnout had declined to a piddling 20 percent by 2004.

By this measure, I would say that the state Legislature’s gamble of moving the primary from March to January was a success. But while I’m on the stats, let me throw another couple at you: Florida is continuing its march into purple statehood, meaning that at some point the party-exclusive primaries are going to become somewhat irrelevant.

In 1972, Republicans statewide made up 28 percent of the electorate, Democrats a little more than 68 percent and unaffiliated voters comprised the remaining 3 percent. In the next three decades, the Republicans closed that gap and now make up about 38 percent of the electorate, while Democrats are 41 percent. But, since 1996, the largest gains have been made in the “Other” category — which is now about 21 percent.

In Miami-Dade County, voters break down almost identically — 42 percent Democrats, 33 percent Republicans, 20 percent no party affiliation (the remaining 5 percent belong to the fringe parties).

It’s clear that the group with the momentum in the long run is “Other.” In the short term, it’s why politicians spend so much time here trying to take us to the prom. We’re just not that easy. In Florida, a given election really is a question of who turns out.

That trickles down to local elections, the building blocks of the national system. Various local groups are beginning to get this and tackle it. The Miami Workers Center, for instance, started a Take Back the Vote campaign, focused on increasing voter turnout in poor black and Hispanic neighborhoods.

On Tuesday, they were stationed at precincts in Wynwood and Liberty City to monitor the polls. The previous two weeks, they canvassed these neighborhoods, trying to entice occasional voters to get out there. But the real purpose was to begin building turnout for the general election.

“We’re doing this because right now politicians really bank on people not voting,” says Joseph Phelan, communications coordinator for the Miami Workers Center. “The system is set up that way. If we can just get the turnout, we can change the shape of an election even without advocating for different candidates.”

Phelan says the group has so far found that voter education is lacking. People know they should vote, but oftentimes they’re unclear what they’re voting for. That’s especially true when it comes to local referendums, such as the ones for property tax cuts and slot machines.

“We are looking at the long term in terms of local elections and motivating that vote,” he adds. “Federal elections are important, but a lot of the federal programs that affect people are shifting to the local level.”

Regardless of Tuesday’s results, the exciting bit of this race is that it feels like a real battle, based on ideas as much as the personal qualities of the candidates. The front-runners in each party (McCain vs. Romney, Clinton vs. Obama) represent the poles each party is struggling to contain.

It’s a refreshing change from the 2000 and 2004 elections, which seemed to offer only a choice of which candidate you hated less. On the Democrat side, the line is drawn between the relentless policy wonk and the disorganized but inspirational new blood.

The Republicans also have their story — the pragmatic CEO with an entirely flexible notion of leadership versus the cantankerous maverick war hero. Thus far in the primaries, this story has been less explored than that of the Democrats. Florida began to bring it out. It’s interesting because what happens in the national party always rebounds into this state.

I asked political consultant Michael Caputo recently about his take on this story. Caputo has been busy working against the Florida Hometown Democracy petition, but he’s worked on presidential campaigns for Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Jack Kemp. In this race, he prefers McCain, but isn’t employed by the campaign.

Early this week, Caputo confidently predicted that both Hometown Democracy and his competing petition would fail, by a tiny margin, to get on the 2008 ballot. “They are at the close but no cigar stage,” he said. “But it’s so close, if it’s not on the ballot in 2010, I’ll eat my hat.”

But on Florida’s significance to the presidential election, Caputo said he’s seeing a developing schism between “the Reaganite conservatives and the Rockefeller Republicans.” This he describes as the emerging dissolution of the uneasy political marriage of the old Reagan and Bush machines.

Back in the day, Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush couldn’t stand each other. But in 1980, they joined forces to win the White House. Their supporters merged somewhat all the way through to the current presidency. “In the era of George W. Bush, with the out of control spending, the remarkable expansion of the bureaucracy and a war fought on questionable grounds,” the original conservatives feel betrayed, Caputo explains. “Now all these folks feel like it’s high time to get divorced.”

So now, suddenly Caputo finds himself picking up all these guys at the airport that he used to work with on the Reagan campaign in 1980 and ’84 and hasn’t seen in Florida since. He credits this to McCain gutting his campaign staff during the summer and hiring old Reagan hands. “An ‘all hands on deck’ call went out to the Reagan crowd,” he says. “These guys are arriving and saying, ‘Put me in, coach.’”

Meanwhile, most of the Bush crowd is supporting Romney. Thus, he sees an old battle playing out anew, with major repercussions for the national race. “In Florida, you’ll see the first real separation,” he argues. “It’s the 1980 race all over again. A lot of folks see Florida as a battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party.”

If Caputo is right about that, it makes perfect sense. Just as the Democrats are trying to redefine themselves, so are the Republicans. Old themes and new form an intoxicating brew. The only question is, how drunk are we going to get?

Comments? E-mail wakefield@miamisunpost.com