|
Forecasting the Oscars
Those who should win don’t always do
By Dan Hudak
Rumor has it that we should expect a toned-down Oscar ceremony this
year, thanks largely to the writer’s strike cutting into
valuable preparation time. Perhaps this will mean fewer dreadful
production numbers and less banter from presenters, but you
never know what will happen when the show begins on ABC at
8 p.m.
Sunday night.
If only there was this much intrigue surrounding the awards. Many
of the categories appear rather predictable. But as Crash
taught us two years ago, you never can tell.
Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis is the overwhelming favorite for Best Actor for
his slimy, charismatic turn in There Will Be Blood, and
rightfully so. Day-Lewis has won all the early-season awards,
something fellow nominee Johnny Depp had no chance of doing
after his lackluster singing in Sweeney Todd. Tommy Lee
Jones certainly deserves to be nominated for his heartrending
performance in In the Valley of Elah, and Viggo Mortensen
is a worthy contender for Eastern Promises. George
Clooney rounds out the category with Michael Clayton.
Should win: Day-Lewis. Will win: Day-Lewis.
Best Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem was so memorably frightening as a cold-blooded killer
in No Country for Old Men that he locked up the Best
Supporting Actor Oscar when the film was released
last November. Casey Affleck’s nomination for The
Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
announces him as a star on the rise, while Hal Holbrook may
steal some sentimental votes for Into the Wild. Tom
Wilkinson added nicely to the ensemble of Michael Clayton,
and Philip Seymour Hoffman was the perfect comic relief in
Charlie Wilson’s War. Should win: Bardem. Will win: Bardem.
Best Actress
Things aren’t as clear for the ladies. Many of the pundits have
Julie Christie leading the Best Actress race for Away from
Her, but the truth is she plays a supporting character in a
movie that was good, not great. Her biggest competition is from
Marion Cotillard in the underappreciated La Vie en Rose
and Ellen Page in the title role of Juno. Laura Linney (The
Savages) and Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age)
have little chance of winning. Should win: Cotillard. Will win:
Christie.
Best Supporting Actress
It’s anyone’s guess who’s going to win Best Supporting Actress.
Some say
Cate
Blanchett has the inside track for I’m Not
There, but she’s also nominated in the lead category, which
traditionally means she’ll win neither.
Ruby
Dee
only had one scene of note in American Gangster, and
young
Saoirse
Ronan also had little screen time in
Atonement. Tilda Swinton is highly respected and Michael
Clayton’s best chance for a win, but Amy Ryan has a lot of
momentum for Gone Baby Gone. Should win: Ryan. Will win:
Swinton.
Best Director
The Best Director Oscar will likely be given to two people,
something that hasn’t happened since 1961, when Robert Wise and
Jerome Robbins won for West Side Story. This year, Joel
and Ethan Coen are the overwhelming favorites for No Country
for Old Men. Paul Thomas Anderson looks to be their biggest
competition for There Will Be Blood, which is an artistic
masterpiece. Jason Reitman is here for his work on Juno,
and first-time director Tony Gilroy is nominated for Michael
Clayton. Julian Schnabel rounds out the nominees for the
little-seen The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Should
win:
Anderson.
Will win: Coen Brothers.
Best Picture
In the Best Picture category, Atonement was so
Euro-trash terrible that it doesn’t even deserve to be mentioned
with the other nominees. It’s like The English Patient
all over again, only worse. Michael Clayton has flaws,
but it does feature fine performances and an intriguing story.
The movie that has it all is There Will Be Blood, which
was my pick for the best of 2007. Juno is this year’s
indie darling that may be beloved enough to take Oscar home, but
the smart money has to be on No Country for Old Men,
which has swept the prior awards and has all the momentum.
Should win: There Will Be Blood. Will win: No Country
for Old Men.
|
